The Bigger Picture in Home Price Data

The Bigger Picture in Home Price Data

Following S&P’s calculation of a 0.1 percent decrease in prices in November, according to the Case-Shiller 20-city composite, analysis on home price data remained positive. “[A]fter accounting for the normal slowdown in the housing market over the winter months, this actually looks like another 0.6 percent [month-over-month] gain,” stated Capital Economics Tuesday

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Similarly IHS Global Insight’s Stephanie Karol noted both Case-Shiller indices, when seasonally adjusted, posted increases for the 10th consecutive month. These increases “are making a difference,” she said. Read more....

Plenty of Bright Spots in Housing

Plenty of Bright Spots in Housing

But Threats Remain: The housing market is showing plenty of strength, from sales and price increases to a decrease in foreclosures. 

“There are almost no housing market indicators showing weakness,” says Mark J. Perry, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan-Flint. 

Among the recent bright spots:

• Existing-home sales jumped more than 9 percent in 2012, the highest level in five years. 
• New-home construction reached a 54-month high in December 2012. 
• The delinquency and foreclosure rate is at its lowest level in four years.  Read more ...

November Prices Up from Prior Month and Year

November Prices Up from Prior Month and Year

Home prices continued to inch up in November, according to Lender Processing Services’ (LPS) Home Price Index (HPI) for the month.

LPS’ data showed home prices increased to an average $207,000 in November, an increase of 0.5 percent from $206,000 in October. On a year-over-year basis, prices were up 5.1 percent from November 2011’s $197,000.

Year-to-date, November’s HPI was up 5.8 percent from $196,000 in January, according to LPS. The recorded peak for this cycle (reached in June 2006) was $266,000 Read more ....

Research Points to Strong Multifamily Sector

Research Points to Strong Multifamily Sector

This Year: The industry seems to agree the multifamily housing market is recovering well and will continue to show positive signs this year. Both Fannie Mae and the National Association of Home Builders report low vacancies and climbing rents for 2012 and anticipate a strong market in 2013.

“Last year was a banner year for the multifamily market, and our baseline forecast calls for further steady growth in the rate of multifamily production,” said NAHB chief economist David Crowe at the association’s recent show. Fannie Mae expects asking rent prices to increase about 2.5 percent this year and expects vacancy rates to increase to about 6 percent, keeping in line with historical norms. Read more ....

Mortgage Rates Climb Higher This Week

Mortgage Rates Climb Higher This Week

Mortgage rates were on their way up this week, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage moving to its highest reading since Sept. 29, 2012, Freddie Mac reports in its weekly mortgage market survey. 

Still, fixed-rate mortgages remain near all-time record lows and “should continue to aid in the ongoing housing recovery,” according to Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Jan. 24: Read more ....

What’s Behind Falling Housing Inventories?

What’s Behind Falling Housing Inventories?
Home prices are increasing across the country as the number of homes for-sale continues to fall. But at a time when buyer demand is picking up, why is inventory still so low? 

Inventories fell to 1.82 million at the end of last year, a 21.6 percent drop from one year earlier, the National Association of REALTORS® reports. This report shows the absorption, or supply of homes, within the last months.  Read more ...

Why This Winter Is a Great Time to Sell '6 Reasons

Why This Winter Is a Great Time to Sell '6 Reasons

Forget the myth that winter is a bad time to sell real estate. While sales usually inch lower in the cooler months, some real estate pros are saying this winter in particular may be a great time to sell a home. Let's start with the old tale that homes do not sell in winter. It just isn't true. Hundreds of thousands of homes sell each month during December, January and February. According to recent data from NAR, the average number of existing home sales during these months last year was 4,537,000.

Here’s why: click to read more and see video..

Existing-Home Sales Slip in December,

Existing-Home Sales Slip in December,
Prices Continue to Rise

Listed inventory is 21.6 percent below a year ago when there was a 6.4-month supply.  Raw, unsold inventory is at the lowest level since January 2001 when there were 1.78 million homes on the market.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $180,800 in December, which is 11.5 percent above December 2011.  This is the 10th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains, which last occurred from August 2005 to May 2006, and is the strongest increase since November 2005 when it jumped 12.9 percent.

For all of 2012, the preliminary median existing-home price was $176,600, up 6.3 percent from $166,100 in 2011, and was the strongest annual price gain since 2005 when the median price rose 12.4 percent. Read more ....

Survey Finds Agents, Homebuyers

Survey Finds Agents, Homebuyers

Optimistic About Prices in 2013: As home prices continue to climb, real estate agents and homebuyers are maintaining a positive outlook for home values in 2013, a recent survey found.

The survey, which was jointly released by Point2Homes and PropertyShark, reported 71 percent of survey respondents predicted home prices will go up or maintain their current level in 2013.
The survey included nearly 1,500 real estate professionals and homebuyers who were questioned in December 2012 on topics such as prices, sales volume, and inventory, as well as factors that will drive the market.

The view that prices will either stabilize or go up was shared by 59 percent of agents and 37 percent of homebuyers. As for sales volumes, 41 percent of respondents overall said sales should increase, with 52 percent of agents sharing this view and 41 percent of homeowners stating sales will go up. Read more...

Builders Build at Fastest Pace in 4 Years

Builders Build at Fastest Pace in 4 Years

Builders broke ground on new homes in December at the fastest pace in more than four years offering a “solid ending to 2012 and a promising start to 2013,” according to the National Association of Home Builders.

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'With inventories of new homes at razor thin levels, builders are moving prudently to break ground on new construction ahead of the spring buying season to meet increasing demand,' says Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders. Read more ....

New Rules for Foreclosures

New Rules for Foreclosures

Federal Agency Releases:

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | FRIDAY, JANUARY 18, 2013

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau released new guidelines for mortgage servicers on Thursday that set out to help protect home owners who may be facing foreclosure. 

CFPB Director Richard Cordraysays the new rules are aimed at trying to prevent “unnecessary foreclosures” as well as “ensure fair treatment for all borrowers and establish strong protections for those struggling to save their homes.”  

Among the CFPB’s new guidelines:  Read more...

100K Homeowners Rose Above Negative Equity in Q3

100K Homeowners Rose Above Negative Equity in Q3

As home prices increase, more borrowers are rising out of negative equity.

Recent data from CoreLogic revealed about 100,000 borrowers moved out of negative equity during the third quarter of 2012, bringing the total number of homeowners who transitioned from negative to positive territory in 2012 to 1.4 million so far.

In the third quarter, about 22 percent of residential properties with a mortgage were considered to be underwater, which translates into 10.7 million mortgages, down from 10.8 million properties in the second quarter.
“Through the third quarter, the number of underwater borrowers declined significantly,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The substantive gain in house prices made in 2012, partly due to tight inventory caused by negative equity’s lock-out effect, has paradoxically alleviated some of the pain.” Read more...

Steady Market Gains Ahead

Steady Market Gains Ahead

Modest growth in the economy and an improving job picture bode well for both residential and commercial real estate.

For residential practitioners, NAR's forecast for 2013 looks like a return to normalcy, with healthy price appreciation, an increase in both existing- and new-home sales, and a drying up of the shadow inventory. Interest rates are expected to remain low, though inflation could put upward pressure on both rates and home prices.

For commercial practitioners, the rise in renter households is good news for the multifamily sector. Office, industrial, and retail are all expected to inch back, with slight declines in vacancies and positive growth in net absorption and rents. After years of tepid performance, both existing-home sales and new-home sales are expected to see significant gains this year and next, despite a gradual rise in interest rates. See rates....  

HUD Announces More Changes to FHA

HUD Announces More Changes to FHA
In a letter to Senator Corker (R-TN) dated Dec.18, 2012,  FHA announced additional changes to 'rebuild the reserves of the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund.' Last month, an independent actuarial audit of FHA showed the economic value of the Fund is negative $13.48 billion.  This means that FHA needs an additional $13.48 billion to carry a full 30-years' worth of reserves on its mortgage insurance portfolio.  The changes outlined in the letter include: read more..

The Rise and Fall of REO Sales

The Rise and Fall of REO Sales

REO sales no longer play the dominant role they once did in real estate transactions. The recent decline in REO sales, along with the decrease in inventory, is helping the market see an improvement in prices, according to a report from Corelogic.

Lack of inventory also helped to sustain home price increases in 2012. According to Corelogic, months’ supply of inventory reached 12 months in July 2010, but as of November, months’ supply has fallen to 4.8 months.

Looking ahead, CoreLogic expects 2013 to be “poised for further recovery” and projects prices will increase 6 percent.

 According to the data provider, high affordability, diminishing REO sales, and the low inventory will fuel the price gains expected ahead. As prices rise, CoreLogic also explained more inventory will become available as underwater borrowers currently locked out of the market and opportunistic sellers begin to list their homes. Read more....

Mortgage Rates Edge Up This Week

Mortgage Rates Edge Up This Week

Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages, the most popular among home buyers, reached their highest reading in eight weeks, Freddie Mac reports in its weekly mortgage market survey. 

'Fixed mortgage rates increased slightly following a positive employment report for December,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The economy added 155,000 jobs, above the consensus market forecast, and November's job growth was revised upward by another 24,000 workers. This helped keep the unemployment rate steady at 7.8 percent, the lowest since December 2008.”

Here’s a closer look at national averages of mortgage rates for the week ending Jan. 10, according to Freddie Mac.  See rates.... 

Housing Recovery ‘Pushes Ahead’ As Prices Rise

Housing Recovery ‘Pushes Ahead’ As Prices Rise

Housing prices are showing resiliency, posting their largest yearly gain in nearly two and a half years, according to Clear Capital’s Home Data Index Market Report, which covers housing data through December 2012. 

Year-over-year, home prices gained 4.9 percent nationwide, according to the report. For 2013, home prices are forecasted to increase by 2.1 percent. 

“Overall the housing recovery still shows evidence of pushing ahead,” says Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “Quarterly home prices mostly mirrored those of last month and suggest that some buyers took pause in the initial winter months. Yet, looking back over 2012, national yearly price gains of 4.9 percent are still strong.” 

What will 2013 bring? 

Short Sales Hit Record High

Fannie and Freddie Report, 

Short sales reached a record number in the third quarter of 2012 for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-backed loans, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the mortgage giants’ regulator. 

Short sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure were up 23 percent from a year ago, totaling 37,966 for the third quarter, FHFA reports. 

An interactive map detailing state-by-state foreclosure prevention actions can be found here.

Tight Inventory Now Drives Home Prices

Tight Inventory Now Drives Home Prices

Home sellers are facing less competition from foreclosures, which some credit as accounting for the rise in home prices in many markets. Foreclosure often drag home prices down. But tighter inventory will likely be the main driver of home prices this year, according to economists. 

CoreLogic says that home prices are on track to post their first yearly gain since 2006. 

“The foreclosure crisis has shifted east, to the judicial states, where the pipeline is slow,” says Khater. “The big driver in 2012 in prices increases [sic] was the decline in REOs, but I think the big move-down has already happened. The driving prices in 2013 will be the tighter inventory.” Read more ...

Salt Lake 1 of 7 Markets Showing Big Price Growth

Salt Lake 1 of 7 Markets Showing Big Price Growth

Home prices are inching up across the country, as a housing recovery ripples through once hard-hit areas. AOL Real Estate, drawing from Trulia housing data, recently highlighted the top “turnaround housing markets” that have seen the biggest jumps in median home prices in the past year. Salt Lake City

• Median home price: $159,000
• Difference in prices between 2011-2012: +18.9%. 

See what other cities are showing big price growth..

Optimism Toward Home Prices

Optimism Toward Home Prices

Uncertainty over the fiscal cliff negotiations did little to shake consumers’ confidence about housing in December, according to the results from Fannie Mae’s latest National Housing Survey.

Consumers continued to show increased optimism toward home price, rental price, and mortgage rate expectations, a sign that home purchase activity may see a boost in the coming months.
“Combined with consumers’ growing mortgage rate and rental price increase expectations, the positive home price outlook could incentivize those waiting on the sidelines of the housing market to buy a home sooner rather than later and thus support continued housing acceleration,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and chief economist at Fannie Mae. See Price change expectation...

Will Mortgage Rates Go Up Again Soon?

Will Mortgage Rates Go Up Again Soon?

Mortgage interest rates are expected to rise this year, and the increase will likely curb refinancings and affect move-up home buyers.
Neither higher interest rates nor fewer refis are expected to have a significant impact on housing starts or home sales, however. 'Interest rates are so low right now that a modest increase wouldn't have much effect on sales,' according to Walter Molony of the National Association of REALTORS®.
See project rates for 2013,2014

Shadow Inventory Continues Decline

Shadow Inventory Continues Decline

“The size of the shadow inventory continues to shrink from peak levels in terms of numbers of units and the dollars they represent,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “We expect a gradual and progressive contraction in the shadow inventory in 2013 as investors continue to snap up foreclosed and REO properties and the broader recovery in housing market fundamentals takes hold.”

“Almost half of the properties in the shadow are delinquent and not yet foreclosed,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Given the long foreclosure timelines in many states, the current shadow inventory stock represents little immediate threat to a significant swing in housing market supply. Investor demand will help to absorb the already foreclosed and REO properties in the shadow inventory in 2013.” Read more ....

5 Tips for Buyers Who Use Downpayment Gifts

5 Tips for Buyers Who Use Downpayment Gifts

About a quarter of first-time home buyers use gifts from relatives to fund a down payment for a home purchase, according to data from the National Association of REALTORS®. But lenders are carefully scrutinizing such gifts. 

“Basically, the banks want to make sure that you’re not getting a second loan,” Ray Mignone of Ray Mignone & Associates, a financial planning firm, told The New York Times. “If all of a sudden $50,000 pops into your account, they want to make sure it’s not a loan against the property that they’re going to put a mortgage on.”

In a recent article, The New York Times provided some of the following tips in making make these lenders’ checks and balances go smoother for home buyers: Read more ...

Experts Predict 3.1% Home Prices Increase in 2013

Experts Predict 3.1% Home Prices Increase in 2013

Home prices will increase by 3.1 percent in 2013 and top off 2012 with a 4.6 percent gain, according to Zillow’sDecember Home Price Expectations Survey.

The survey, which was conducted by Pulsenomics LLC, was based on responses from 105 economists and industry experts.
In September, survey panelists projected more modest gains and predicted prices would rise by 2.4 percent in 2013 and increase overall by 2.3 percent in 2012.

Through 2017, panelists expect prices to increase by more than 3 percent annually. Read more ...

New-Home Sales Jump to Fastest Pace in Years

New-Home Sales Jump to Fastest Pace in Years

New single-family home sales soared to its fastest pace in 2 1/2 years, jumping 4.4 percent over last month, as median prices also rose, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. 

The sales pace in November for new-home sales was the highest since April 2010, the same time when the federal home-buyer tax credit had expired, the Commerce Department reported. 

The median home price of new homes jumped 14.9 percent year-over-year, reaching $246,200. Read more ....